Abstract :This research paper examines the patterns of indirect tax revenues during the Goods and Services Tax (GST) era. The study evaluates the influence of GST revenue in India, specifically focusing on the state of Haryana. The GST has been recognized as the most comprehensive and widely adopted tax reform in India's history of indirect taxation, with its implementation occurring on July 1, 2017. The main objective of establishing GST and reforming the long-standing practices of paying indirect taxes was to create consistency and clarity in the existing system while eliminating the complexity of multiple taxes under the previous indirect tax framework. This analysis utilizes statistical data from official websites of central and state government authorities, collecting indirect tax data from the year 2017 to 2024, specifically after the implementation of GST. The Exponential Triple Smoothing (ETS) function and Holt-Winters' Multiplicative Method were employed to forecast tax income and compare it with actual tax collection, excluding the impact of compensation cess until March 2024. The study's findings indicate a rising pattern of indirect tax income in India, with a few exceptions primarily due to the effects of the pandemic and certain unavoidable administrative intricacies. In the context of Haryana, which rank seventh in GST collection among Indian states, it has also been observed that, apart from a few months, there is a steady increase in indirect tax income, indicating the promising expansion of the Indian economy. The study further compares GDP growth and indirect tax performance, revealing a positive correlation between economic growth and tax mobilization within the GST framework.

Keywords : GST, India, Haryana, ETS, Forecasting JEL classification: H27, O53, C10, C19